0xbc5f695db27a22c92f934c0d28f060b93873018f
0xbc5f695db27a22c92f934c0d28f060b93873018f
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-227.13
Win rate
2%
200 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20?
2122 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-43.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 21?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on July 4?
1659 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-17.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 39°C or higher on July 11?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 1?
1266 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.91
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 20?
1257 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-19.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 1?
1248 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 3?
1236 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-23.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 1?
1036 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.23
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$0.12Jul 18, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$1.07Jul 18, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 17?$2.01Jul 17, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 17?$2.18Jul 17, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 17?$2.09Jul 17, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 17?$1.05Jul 17, 05:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 16?$7.94Jul 16, 13:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 16?$0.73Jul 16, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 16?$3.23Jul 16, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 16?$1.80Jul 16, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 16?$0.07Jul 16, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 16?$20.03Jul 16, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 16?$1.85Jul 16, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 16?$1.85Jul 16, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 16?$10.77Jul 16, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 16?$20.24Jul 16, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 16?$2.41Jul 16, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 16?$15.38Jul 16, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 16?$0.39Jul 16, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 16?$3.12Jul 16, 03:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 200 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
200 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $4.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 08:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 07:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 200 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.