Crisp-March
0xbc6d880e5038d6c6e8a3ead6f0a9973f70e00bce
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-106.55
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Trump say "China" 7 or more times during Michigan rally on Nov 4?
247 shares @ 18.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-45.55
- NO
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 11?
208 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
- NO
Will Trump say "trans" during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?
111 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Michigan rally on Nov 4?
42 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?
34 shares @ 58.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2024$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Trump say "think of it" 5 or more times during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump issue an executive order on February 11?$25.00Feb 11, 03:06 UTC
- TRADESELLKanye banned on X by Monday?$94.36Feb 11, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYKanye banned on X by Monday?$90.00Feb 10, 13:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk attend Super Bowl LIX?$90.00Feb 10, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk attend Super Bowl LIX?$54.00Feb 9, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?$54.55Feb 9, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?$20.00Nov 6, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?$30.00Nov 6, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?$483.61Nov 6, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?$302.00Nov 5, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "McDonald's" during Michigan rally on Nov 4?$202.54Nov 5, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "China" 7 or more times during Michigan rally on Nov 4?$0.55Nov 5, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "China" 7 or more times during Michigan rally on Nov 4?$10.00Nov 5, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Michigan rally on Nov 4?$1.00Nov 5, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "China" 7 or more times during Michigan rally on Nov 4?$35.00Nov 5, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "McDonald's" during Michigan rally on Nov 4?$100.00Nov 5, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Kamala" 25 or more times during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?$142.90Nov 5, 02:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?$1.20Nov 5, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?$6.00Nov 5, 01:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election?$3.41Nov 5, 00:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $197.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 3, 17:15 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 11, 03:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.