Yearly-Credential
0xbc78525664f9901a828b3500927f405ea0d67f11
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-146.25
Realised
$45.53
Win rate
73%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
152 shares @ 10.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-15.41
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
100 shares @ 21.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-21.41
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
96 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
72 shares @ 26.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-19.15
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
61 shares @ 20.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-12.58
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
35 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-13.49
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
33 shares @ 21.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
30 shares @ 47.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-14.27
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
30 shares @ 48.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-14.39
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET$1.82Jun 23, 03:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$2.00Jun 23, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$1.03Jun 23, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET$1.03Jun 23, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$1.03Jun 23, 02:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$1.45Jun 23, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$1.02Jun 23, 02:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$1.40Jun 23, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$1.02Jun 23, 02:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$7.14Jun 23, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$1.05Jun 23, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$1.05Jun 23, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$5.28Jun 23, 02:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$0.87Jun 10, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Africa win on 2026-06-11?$1.03Jun 10, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?$1.02Jun 10, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$5.04Jun 10, 13:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$3.01Jun 10, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.07Jun 10, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.07Jun 10, 12:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $2.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 17:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 03:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.