Masculine-Confidence
0xbc8405b2c4149332c835ebb7e29e68e53eaba0d2
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.3K
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$78.82
Win rate
60%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on July 29?
259 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$258.87
$2.46
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on July 30?
262 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$256.66
$-2.51
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on July 30?
253 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$251.37
$1.26
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 30?
212 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$211.05
$1.43
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 30?
163 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$161.64
$0.73
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on July 30?
115 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$114.77
$-0.12
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C on July 31?
104 shares @ 95.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$102.44
$3.64
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?
62 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$61.80
$1.21
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on July 30?
61 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$60.31
$0.31
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on July 30?
47 shares @ 98.7¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$46.62
$0.43
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 31?$4.95Jul 29, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 31?$4.90Jul 29, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on July 31?$4.95Jul 29, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on July 28?$83.97Jul 29, 05:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on July 28?$5.00Jul 29, 05:13 UTC
- CONVERSIONLowest temperature in Paris on July 31?$0.00Jul 29, 04:43 UTC
- SPLITWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C or higher on July 31?$100.00Jul 29, 04:42 UTC
- CONVERSIONLowest temperature in London on July 31?$0.00Jul 29, 04:35 UTC
- SPLITWill the lowest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on July 31?$100.00Jul 29, 04:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 31?$4.95Jul 29, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 31?$4.95Jul 29, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 31?$4.95Jul 29, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 31?$4.95Jul 29, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 31?$4.95Jul 29, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on July 31?$4.95Jul 29, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 31?$4.95Jul 29, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 31?$4.95Jul 29, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on July 31?$4.95Jul 29, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 31?$4.95Jul 29, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 31?$4.95Jul 29, 04:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $13.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 02:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 05:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.