Gregarious-Mankind
0xbcd444529c289d22e8b27b54a02035b8bc6450fa
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$213.58
Total PnL
$-461.14
Realised
$-36.82
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
14730 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$213.58
$-36.43
- YES
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
70662 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-70.66
- YES
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
1000 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2024$0.00
$-57.95
- YES
Will AfD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election?
841 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 21, 2024$0.00
$-68.54
- NO
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
222 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 24, 2024$0.00
$-99.90
- YES
Will Kamala lead by over 2.5 or more points on September 20?
217 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2024$0.00
$-2.39
- YES
Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1.5-1.9 on Oct 4?
200 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2024$0.00
$-48.00
- YES
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
100 shares @ 32.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-32.59
- YES
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?
13 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-7.62
- NO
Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 on Sept 27?
13 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 27, 2024$0.00
$-0.26
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jun 13, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.65Jun 12, 07:38 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.64Jun 12, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 12, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.98Jun 11, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.50Jun 11, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$63.91Jun 11, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$34.00Jun 11, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.19Jun 11, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.46Jun 11, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.70Jun 11, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.96Jun 11, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jun 11, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.61Jun 11, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$24.29Jun 11, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.29Jun 11, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$98.64Jun 11, 19:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.78Jun 11, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.59Jun 11, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$120.83Jun 11, 19:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $20.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 4, 22:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.