Gregarious-Mankind
0xbcd444529c289d22e8b27b54a02035b8bc6450fa
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$242.24
Total PnL
$-985.35
Realised
$252.69
Win rate
55%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 30?
150 shares @ 38.8¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$95.25
$37.05
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?
100 shares @ 36.8¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$70.00
$33.20
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 30?
300 shares @ 13.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$43.50
$4.50
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 29?
400 shares @ 2.6¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$21.99
$11.36
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
31 shares @ 22.9¢·now 23.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.20
$0.11
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?
18 shares @ 27.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.31
$-0.54
- YES
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
70662 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-70.66
- YES
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
11427 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-500.66
- YES
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
8060 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-43.27
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?
7800 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-7.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$4.99Jul 28, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 29?$4.95Jul 28, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$7.36Jul 28, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 30?$27.58Jul 28, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 30?$13.00Jul 28, 17:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$46.27Jul 28, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 29?$9.36Jul 28, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 29?$0.12Jul 28, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$5.00Jul 28, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$5.55Jul 28, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$1.85Jul 28, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$1.85Jul 28, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$1.93Jul 28, 13:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 29?$13.69Jul 28, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 30?$0.14Jul 28, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 30?$44.84Jul 28, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 30?$0.61Jul 28, 10:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$1.98Jul 28, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 30?$13.11Jul 28, 10:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$0.80Jul 28, 10:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $8.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 15:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.