Improbable-Skill
0xbcda51bdeefa73464666b6f9fa14f512062a6fee
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$3.38
Total PnL
$-14.62
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
1 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$1.30
$0.30
- YES
Will Newcastle United advance to the round of 16?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.08
$0.08
- YES
Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - September 18, 8PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Litecoin ETF approved in 2025?
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- ROYALS
Mets vs. Royals
9 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?
3 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down on September 19?
2 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Canton launch a token in 2025?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Newcastle United advance to the round of 16?$1.00Feb 18, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?$1.00Feb 18, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?$1.00Feb 18, 15:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 31?$1.00Feb 18, 15:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 1?$1.02Feb 18, 15:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?$1.08Feb 18, 15:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bank of New York Mellon (BK) beat quarterly earnings?$1.08Feb 18, 15:01 UTC
- REDEEMPepe ETF in 2025?$1.42Feb 18, 15:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?$1.49Feb 18, 15:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Abstract launch a token in 2025?$1.59Feb 18, 15:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill CZ return to Binance by December 31?$2.08Feb 18, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 31?$1.00Oct 29, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 1?$1.00Oct 29, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down on September 19?$1.54Oct 13, 15:42 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down on September 19?$2.08Oct 13, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bank of New York Mellon (BK) beat quarterly earnings?$1.00Oct 13, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Glacier Bancorp (GBCI) beat quarterly earnings?$1.00Oct 13, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?$1.00Oct 13, 15:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Yunakivka before August?$0.00Sep 19, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum all time high by December 31?$1.00Sep 19, 01:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $28.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 15, 14:05 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 18, 15:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".