Long-Term-Essay
0xbcf6bae355b22851e0fd7febdfcbb23d8d5fa936
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$15.26
Total PnL
$-93.90
Realised
$-4.56
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?
17 shares @ 72.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.17
$-2.83
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
6 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$6.10
$1.10
- UP
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 23?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's latest video get 20–22 million views on day 1?
1006 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down on March 1?
243 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on March 1?
223 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
77 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 1?
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 13?
50 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on March 30?
42 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$6.00Apr 15, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 13?$4.00Apr 13, 12:57 UTC
- TRADESELLSPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 13?$19.82Apr 13, 12:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on April 13?$8.05Apr 13, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on April 13?$15.00Apr 13, 09:48 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 10AM ET$5.88Apr 13, 09:47 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down on April 10?$8.95Apr 13, 09:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on April 10?$10.03Apr 13, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 13?$16.00Apr 12, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 10AM ET$1.00Apr 10, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 10AM ET$5.00Apr 10, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,300 on April 10?$4.00Apr 10, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 10AM ET$5.00Apr 10, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by December 31?$20.00Apr 10, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on April 10?$5.00Apr 10, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on April 10?$5.00Apr 10, 13:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on April 1?$0.00Apr 7, 16:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?$0.00Apr 7, 16:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on April 1?$5.09Apr 7, 16:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?$6.76Apr 7, 16:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $6.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 8, 13:15 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 15, 06:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.