Unacceptable-Kielbasa
0xbcf96b9cf8335f23d6c0904dea605dd144179b13
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
66
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-936.52
Realised
$-294.24
Win rate
50%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- YES
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
920 shares @ 20.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$331.20
$147.20
- YES
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
920 shares @ 20.7¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$299.00
$108.67
- YES
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
920 shares @ 34.5¢·now 22.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$202.40
$-115.10
- NO
Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 95.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$99.90
$4.20
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1000 shares @ 7.9¢·now 9.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$91.00
$12.00
- YES
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
210 shares @ 18.9¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.43
$32.88
- YES
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
1320 shares @ 12.7¢·now 5.1¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$67.98
$-99.92
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
100 shares @ 63.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.50
$-10.50
- YES
Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
1355 shares @ 8.6¢·now 3.3¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$44.71
$-72.48
- YES
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 22.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.00
$-7.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?$10.04Jul 25, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?$0.97Jul 25, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?$0.98Jul 25, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?$0.98Jul 25, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?$0.98Jul 25, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?$0.98Jul 25, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?$23.37Jul 25, 00:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?$57.52Jul 24, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?$45.37Jul 24, 17:41 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$23.95Jul 20, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$10.5KJul 20, 06:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $366.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 19:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.