Wallet digest

active

Activity score

45/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.7K

Realised

$-65.62

Win rate

36%

11 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 92

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
1920 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026
$0.00
$-99.94
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
1231 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026
$0.00
$-99.86
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
1111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026
$0.00
$-10.43
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
1111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
960 shares @ 13.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-130.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
782 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026
$0.00
$-59.92
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
668 shares @ 44.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026
$0.00
$-295.44
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
637 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026
$0.00
$-197.71
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
632 shares @ 46.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026
$0.00
$-295.35

Recent activity

TRADEBUYExact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain?$30.71Jul 6, 18:01 UTC
TRADEBUYLamine Yamal: 1+ goals$5.10Jul 6, 17:59 UTC
TRADEBUYCristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals$5.10Jul 6, 17:59 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Spain?$10.28Jul 6, 17:58 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Spain?$10.28Jul 6, 17:58 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Spain?$10.29Jul 6, 17:57 UTC
TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$5.12Jul 6, 17:57 UTC
TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$10.22Jul 6, 17:56 UTC
TRADEBUYPortugal to score first vs. Spain?$5.09Jul 6, 17:56 UTC
TRADEBUYPortugal to score first vs. Spain?$10.19Jul 6, 17:56 UTC
TRADEBUYPortugal to score first vs. Spain?$10.19Jul 6, 17:56 UTC
TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 0.5$10.09Jul 6, 17:56 UTC
TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Spain: O/U 3.5$10.21Jul 6, 17:55 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Spain (-1.5)$10.22Jul 6, 17:52 UTC
TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score$10.12Jul 6, 17:49 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-07-06?$10.23Jul 6, 17:48 UTC
TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance$10.20Jul 6, 17:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$10.54Jun 29, 10:22 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$22.70Jun 29, 10:22 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$1.19Jun 29, 10:22 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

36/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

36% win rate over 11 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence37 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry54 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk41 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $19.69
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 10, 19:26 UTC
Last active: Jul 6, 18:01 UTC
Win rate sample: 11 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:12:45 UTC·src:Polymarket Data