Anxious-Silo
0xbd051403526202b75e393ccacd58e5feba6ceb40
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
129
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$168.71
Win rate
80%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 129- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2AM ET
6670 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$-6.67
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 19?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
3300 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-9.90
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 19?
600 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.60
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 19?
600 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
600 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 4?
535 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$-14.36
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - January 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
520 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$-7.18
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down - December 29, 11PM ET
500 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$0.08Jun 22, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5$0.08Jun 22, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYCleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5$0.10Jun 21, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYCleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5$0.25Jun 21, 01:00 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$0.06Feb 1, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$4.00Jan 31, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$9.80Jan 31, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$0.82Jan 31, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$3.28Jan 31, 02:16 UTC
- MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$15.62Jan 31, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$20.00Jan 31, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$2.00Jan 31, 02:13 UTC
- MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$21.98Jan 31, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$3.10Jan 31, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$6.20Jan 31, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$5.00Jan 31, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$5.00Jan 31, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$5.00Jan 31, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$3.15Jan 31, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$5.00Jan 31, 02:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $4.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 21, 02:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 20:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.