Early-Quarter
0xbd14f7531958815921ee219adedbec2fe1ef9f7b
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-489.54
Realised
$-170.86
Win rate
0%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 17?
279 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.25
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 25?
234 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.27
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 20?
231 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.47
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?
219 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.75
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on January 30?
194 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.27
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 14?
154 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-42.11
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 10?
152 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.19
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 23?
138 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-37.37
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on January 30?
134 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.08
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down on January 22?
116 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.82
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $80 on August 8?$174.16Aug 8, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on August 8?$172.94Aug 7, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 10?$3.41Jul 10, 03:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on July 5?$217.78Jul 5, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on July 5?$215.82Jul 4, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 31?$199.10Jun 1, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 31?$0.35May 31, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 31?$197.16May 30, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $90 May 18-24?$1.94May 24, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 24?$5.58May 23, 17:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 20?$182.30May 20, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 20?$0.36May 20, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 20?$0.21May 20, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 20?$0.13May 20, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 20?$0.15May 20, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 20?$178.89May 20, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 17?$2.33May 16, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 17?$1.14May 16, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $110 on May 12?$225.38May 12, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $110 on May 12?$222.45May 11, 19:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $66.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 13, 23:04 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 8, 16:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.