0xbd3c0b3a90d5c17f884745e1d8d2e7cc3a09fc78
0xbd3c0b3a90d5c17f884745e1d8d2e7cc3a09fc78
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
126
Open notional
$57.56
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$-46.46
Win rate
50%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 126- YES
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
44 shares @ 73.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$37.72
$5.33
- OVER
GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo: O/U 1.5
39 shares @ 83.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$19.83
$-12.45
- YES
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- KOLESIE
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Stage
6911 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-13.21
- YES
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
6040 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.04
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?
5360 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.36
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?
2565 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.13
- YES
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
2020 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.02
- YES
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMExact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay?$52.63Jun 20, 05:20 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay?$67.00Jun 20, 05:20 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay?$122.75Jun 20, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYTürkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5$116.46Jun 20, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYTürkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5$34.25Jun 20, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay?$88.59Jun 20, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay?$62.44Jun 20, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYTürkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5$89.72Jun 20, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYTürkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5$64.05Jun 20, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYTürkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5$32.46Jun 20, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?$67.61Jun 20, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay?$50.00Jun 20, 03:01 UTC
- REDEEMBrazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5$10.52Jun 20, 02:50 UTC
- REDEEMBrazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5$52.63Jun 20, 02:50 UTC
- REDEEMBrazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5$76.00Jun 20, 02:50 UTC
- REDEEMBrazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5$177.56Jun 20, 02:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$7.30Jun 20, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5$33.52Jun 20, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5$8.26Jun 20, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5$64.15Jun 20, 01:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $42.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 20:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 05:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.