Ideal-Friction
0xbd3f8f21345d84b865feed7a48d260e9c9aed12d
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.8K
Realised
$-187.59
Win rate
0%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?
5500 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-584.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15?
4638 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-485.69
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 18?
3083 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-399.54
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 30?
3000 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 8?
1839 shares @ 31.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-582.70
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 6?
1289 shares @ 40.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-519.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 9?
1088 shares @ 50.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-549.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28?
1038 shares @ 29.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-309.41
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22?
1038 shares @ 40.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-419.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23?
999 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-329.67
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$2.76Aug 13, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 13?$89.05Aug 12, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 13?$20.00Aug 12, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 13?$46.73Aug 12, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 13?$1.00Aug 12, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 13?$42.23Aug 12, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 13?$1.00Aug 12, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 13?$100.00Aug 12, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 13?$100.00Aug 12, 15:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on August 11?$788.36Aug 11, 16:13 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.76Aug 11, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on August 10?$788.36Aug 10, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 11?$200.00Aug 10, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 11?$4.81Aug 10, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 11?$95.19Aug 10, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 11?$0.11Aug 10, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 11?$93.60Aug 10, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 11?$1.08Aug 10, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 11?$5.20Aug 10, 16:00 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.76Aug 10, 00:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $46.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 7, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.