Considerate-Wire
0xbd4962f3e11700f524a563c334beea1349380d55
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$550.53
Total PnL
$-2.4K
Realised
$-58.48
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
405 shares @ 80.0¢·now 91.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$369.18
$44.98
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
1170 shares @ 42.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$181.35
$-310.05
- YES
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?
6349 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-444.61
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
1818 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?
1500 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
1461 shares @ 18.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-274.65
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
1131 shares @ 45.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-512.23
- NO
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
825 shares @ 40.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-335.40
- YES
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?
700 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?
700 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-31.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$138.20May 19, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$137.08May 19, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$35.25May 18, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$169.08May 18, 00:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$198.02May 18, 00:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?$8.13May 18, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$10.38Apr 18, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$80.00Apr 18, 05:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$10.63Apr 18, 05:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$105.00Apr 18, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$111.42Apr 18, 05:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$111.42Apr 18, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?$5.30Apr 18, 05:22 UTC
- REWARD$1.17Apr 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?$360.10Apr 16, 18:15 UTC
- REWARD$2.00Apr 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?$40.16Apr 15, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?$91.14Apr 15, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sumy by June 30?$30.00Apr 13, 05:03 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by December 31?$0.00Apr 9, 05:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $105.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 4, 03:13 UTC
- Last active
- May 19, 05:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.