Admired-Tile
0xbd70eebd1374580d4fbbf0291f4b6fba44fdd270
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$5.0K
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$2.3K
Win rate
42%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4125 shares @ 50.0¢·now 77.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.2K
$1.1K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4125 shares @ 50.0¢·now 22.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$938.44
$-1.1K
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
1088 shares @ 54.2¢·now 74.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$810.54
$220.40
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
100 shares @ 63.7¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$94.51
$30.75
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?
11235 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-258.04
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
10019 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-295.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?
8671 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-143.53
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?
6468 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-497.60
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
6451 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-21.82
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?
6279 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-101.83
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.37Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 8, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 5, 02:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 4, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 3, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Aug 1, 00:13 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.65Jul 31, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Jul 31, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
52 closed markets, 42% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $8.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.