Rare-Waterfront
0xbd85eb45c605f1fcc94f8b1cca687f8826a67a3d
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
80
Open notional
$659.83
Total PnL
$-47.06
Realised
$-8.05
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 29?
25 shares @ 66.2¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$19.62
$3.07
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 29?
25 shares @ 63.6¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$18.12
$2.22
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?
25 shares @ 59.8¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$16.62
$1.67
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 30?
25 shares @ 60.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$15.38
$0.38
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 29?
25 shares @ 68.2¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$15.38
$-1.67
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 30?
25 shares @ 59.8¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$15.37
$0.42
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 30?
25 shares @ 59.8¢·now 60.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$15.00
$0.05
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?
15 shares @ 60.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$14.99
$5.99
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 28?
15 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$14.99
$6.14
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 30?
24 shares @ 59.8¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$14.94
$0.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 30?$2.07Jul 28, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 29?$0.06Jul 28, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 30?$6.03Jul 28, 22:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 28?$19.97Jul 28, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on July 30?$2.95Jul 28, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 30?$4.46Jul 28, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?$0.65Jul 28, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 30?$1.44Jul 28, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 30?$3.10Jul 28, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?$3.00Jul 28, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?$0.43Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?$0.45Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?$0.42Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?$0.01Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 29?$1.08Jul 28, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 30?$3.81Jul 28, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 29?$0.22Jul 28, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on July 30?$1.73Jul 28, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 30?$0.76Jul 28, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 30?$9.15Jul 28, 19:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $2.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 15:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.