Punctual-Banquette
0xbd9109baf490cfc9841cec9bb09cecf9aec56262
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$44.78
Total PnL
$-60.06
Realised
$8.43
Win rate
92%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
29 shares @ 18.5¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$4.53
$-0.87
- YES
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
56 shares @ 12.5¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.60
$-3.40
- NO
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?
22 shares @ 16.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.28
$-0.22
- YES
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 29.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.20
$-0.30
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 21?
23 shares @ 15.1¢·now 13.6¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$3.14
$-0.36
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
19 shares @ 18.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.11
$-0.39
- YES
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 16.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.52
$-0.98
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 16.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.30
$-1.20
- YES
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 16.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.08
$-1.42
- YES
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
21 shares @ 33.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.59
$-5.41
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$3.50Aug 18, 11:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$1.17Aug 18, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 18, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$3.87Aug 18, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$2.79Aug 18, 03:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$3.94Aug 18, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$3.50Aug 17, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$2.66Aug 17, 21:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?$3.68Aug 17, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 21?$3.50Aug 17, 20:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$1.98Aug 17, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?$3.50Aug 17, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$3.50Aug 17, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$1.80Aug 17, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?$0.84Aug 17, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?$0.38Aug 17, 13:22 UTC
- TRADESELLIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?$0.50Aug 17, 12:46 UTC
- TRADESELLIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?$3.25Aug 17, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?$3.50Aug 17, 11:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?$3.69Aug 17, 08:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $2.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 03:12 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 11:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.