Puzzling-Degradation
0xbd920bf7859cd3ceb4f55d223a56d4cee8783482
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$189.92
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$56.07
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
288 shares @ 26.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$67.79
$-7.21
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
50 shares @ 87.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.30
$-7.26
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
204 shares @ 27.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.54
$-25.46
- YES
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
100 shares @ 83.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.43
$-63.28
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
109 shares @ 46.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$17.94
$-32.07
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
292 shares @ 25.0¢·now 3.4¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$9.78
$-63.22
- YES
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
194 shares @ 6.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.34
$-6.31
- YES
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
20 shares @ 15.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.30
$-0.70
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
459 shares @ 15.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.69
$-70.31
- YES
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 10.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.68
$-3.32
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$15.27Jul 2, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$6.65Jun 25, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$6.60Jun 25, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?$6.45Jun 25, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$6.44Jun 25, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$5.11Jun 25, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$5.21Jun 25, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$30.32Jun 25, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026?$5.14Jun 25, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$3.00Jun 25, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$5.00Jun 25, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$4.00Jun 25, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$2.00Jun 25, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?$2.00Jun 25, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$5.00Jun 25, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.00Jun 25, 11:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings?$20.54Jun 24, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23?$47.22Jun 23, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$1.07Jun 23, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$1.06Jun 23, 07:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $13.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 06:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.