Improbable-Accident
0xbda842b454a13b5c0d5c9ba79a7f789a6c5f63de
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$0.06
Total PnL
$-39.48
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
17 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.06
$-1.94
- NO
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
S&P 500 all time high by April 17, 2026?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?
333 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 9?
212 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-11.43
- YES
Will Trump say "Fake news" during Fox interview on Wednesday?
61 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Boat" during Fox interview on Wednesday?
35 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
28 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.70
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
25 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$2.00Apr 17, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?$1.00Apr 16, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 all time high by April 17, 2026?$1.00Apr 16, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%?$1.00Apr 16, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?$2.00Apr 16, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$3.00Apr 16, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Boat" during Fox interview on Wednesday?$2.00Apr 16, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fake news" during Fox interview on Wednesday?$2.00Apr 16, 02:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$6.33Apr 16, 02:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$10.16Apr 16, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$3.00Apr 16, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$2.00Apr 16, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$6.80Apr 16, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$2.00Apr 15, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$1.13Apr 15, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.00Apr 13, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$5.00Apr 12, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$2.00Apr 12, 09:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$13.47Apr 12, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$5.00Apr 12, 09:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $3.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 9, 04:06 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 17, 15:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.