Modest-Odometer
0xbdad67aca6283e77c982e2eff2e1c8a5bbd83ef7
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$179.13
Total PnL
$-54.66
Realised
$-8.26
Win rate
16%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- NO
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $192 in August?
30 shares @ 88.9¢·now 97.1¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$29.35
$2.48
- NO
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16.5B by August 31?
41 shares @ 64.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$25.54
$-0.82
- NO
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by August 31?
22 shares @ 87.5¢·now 77.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$16.84
$-2.16
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of August 10 2026?
20 shares @ 76.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$14.85
$-0.30
- YES
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of August 10 above $167?
17 shares @ 81.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$12.86
$-0.76
- YES
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16B by August 31?
41 shares @ 25.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$12.40
$2.07
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of August 10 2026?
20 shares @ 20.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$11.30
$7.30
- NO
Over $2.5M committed to the Ryvo public sale?
9 shares @ 80.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$9.07
$1.69
- NO
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027?
13 shares @ 35.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$8.72
$4.03
- YES
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $120B by August 31?
22 shares @ 10.4¢·now 31.6¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$6.91
$4.64
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?$3.63Aug 11, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?$1.42Aug 11, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of August 10 2026?$15.30Aug 10, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of August 10 2026?$4.13Aug 10, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir (PLTR) finish week of August 10 above $168?$2.95Aug 10, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir (PLTR) finish week of August 10 above $167?$13.72Aug 10, 21:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?$32.15Aug 10, 20:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$9.31Aug 10, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$10.44Aug 9, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?$29.29Aug 9, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in August?$6.70Aug 9, 06:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?$10.94Aug 9, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill UEFA end its FIFA boycott by August 6, 2026?$22.00Aug 8, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $1.5M committed to the Ryvo public sale?$1.57Aug 8, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $2.5M committed to the Ryvo public sale?$7.48Aug 8, 08:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8B by August 31?$8.73Aug 8, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7.75B by August 31?$1.38Aug 8, 06:21 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies new UFO files by August 31?$0.01Aug 7, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $208 in August?$1.13Aug 5, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $192 in August?$26.99Aug 5, 22:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $11.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 16:23 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 04:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.