Surprised-Fugato
0xbdadda734ba357d8b328378d412bcd268aafd8b0
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$443.51
Total PnL
$8.56
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the AFD be part of the next German government?
108 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$107.53
$7.53
- YES
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government?
105 shares @ 95.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$104.71
$4.71
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
77 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$76.92
$26.92
- NO
Zelenskyy impeached before July?
54 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$54.35
$4.35
- NO
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?
50 shares @ 80.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$50.00
$9.55
- NO
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?
50 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$50.00
$13.50
- YES
US recession in 2025?
100 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-58.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days?$0.00May 2, 14:18 UTC
- REDEEMNegative GDP growth in Q1 2025?$0.00May 2, 14:18 UTC
- REDEEMTrump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?$63.29May 2, 14:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?$105.26May 2, 14:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?$106.38May 2, 14:18 UTC
- REDEEM1,000+ Measles cases in U.S. before May?$143.26May 2, 14:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025?$222.53May 2, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?$40.45Apr 26, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pietro Parolin be the next pope?$36.50Apr 26, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025?$200.00Apr 19, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025?$57.00Apr 19, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYNegative GDP growth in Q1 2025?$150.00Apr 19, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUY1,000+ Measles cases in U.S. before May?$19.23Apr 18, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025?$62.00Apr 15, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUY1,000+ Measles cases in U.S. before May?$100.00Apr 15, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession in 2025?$58.00Apr 5, 07:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the March 2025 unemployment rate be between 4.2%?$0.00Apr 5, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump impose tariffs on Japan in the first 100 days?$0.00Apr 5, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?$0.00Apr 5, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the March 2025 unemployment rate be between 4.1%?$0.00Apr 5, 07:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $63.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 7, 20:48 UTC
- Last active
- May 2, 14:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".