0xbdb81d789c344a53a1433408ae0d8cfd027bf592
0xbdb81d789c344a53a1433408ae0d8cfd027bf592
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-553.10
Realised
$-10.89
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 20?
423 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-35.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 17?
254 shares @ 25.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-64.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on February 22?
215 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-17.77
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 16?
154 shares @ 46.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-71.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 16?
147 shares @ 36.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-53.73
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 16?
125 shares @ 38.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-47.87
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 18?
116 shares @ 38.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-44.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 18?
93 shares @ 34.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-32.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on February 20?
63 shares @ 12.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 19?
55 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-19.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 10?$1.31Apr 12, 09:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7?$1.26Apr 7, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7?$0.97Apr 7, 10:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 10?$0.50Apr 6, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 10?$2.10Apr 6, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 4?$0.01Apr 5, 09:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 4?$0.01Apr 5, 09:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 9?$0.84Apr 5, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 9?$2.15Apr 5, 07:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 8?$3.18Apr 5, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 8?$2.15Apr 5, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 8?$2.15Apr 5, 06:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 8?$0.90Apr 5, 06:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 8?$0.84Apr 5, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 8?$2.15Apr 5, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 8?$2.15Apr 5, 05:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 8?$2.08Apr 4, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 8?$2.00Apr 4, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 8?$2.00Apr 4, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 8?$1.71Apr 4, 18:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 2, 08:34 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 12, 09:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.