Disastrous-Paperback
0xbdd9f886d9508516b3c5d25c734be09025fbe999
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-277.15
Realised
$-82.05
Win rate
0%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 19?
221 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.65
- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 8?
195 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.95
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 27, 1AM ET
193 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.89
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 25?
191 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.31
- NO
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 27?
130 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-6.09
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 27?
124 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-33.59
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 20?
108 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.73
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23?
108 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.29
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 28?
103 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.95
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 21?
90 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-24.71
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on July 29?$178.37Jul 29, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on July 29?$176.94Jul 29, 01:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 11?$220.97Jul 11, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 11?$6.81Jul 11, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 11?$118.92Jul 11, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 11?$49.55Jul 11, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 11?$43.70Jul 11, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 4?$225.82Jun 4, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 4?$1.37Jun 4, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 4?$222.42Jun 4, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1?$1.80May 31, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 27?$6.50May 26, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 24?$1.79May 23, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23?$1.38May 22, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 19?$2.83May 18, 17:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 13?$177.78May 13, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 13?$176.18May 12, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 8?$2.35May 8, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 8?$2.09May 7, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP reach $2.10 April 20-26?$184.62May 2, 23:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $71.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 18:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 21:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.