Rapid-Fraction
0xbdf4cddcf0c4b850a080a1bf39a770150149ff9a
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-89.86
Realised
$-1.85
Win rate
6%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Switzerland leading at halftime?
59 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
33 shares @ 12.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 19?
27 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET
19 shares @ 20.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals
18 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Dow say "Quarter" 10+ times during earnings call?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$2.09Aug 13, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$2.10Aug 13, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$1.07Aug 7, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.05Aug 7, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.03Aug 7, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$1.05Jul 26, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$2.11Jul 26, 07:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$0.00Jul 26, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$2.09Jul 26, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$2.08Jul 26, 07:42 UTC
- REWARD$1.18Jul 24, 00:25 UTC
- REWARD$0.61Jul 24, 00:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster?$0.25Jul 23, 15:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast say "Karl" during his next YouTube video?$0.80Jul 23, 15:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 24?$0.89Jul 23, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Karl" during his next YouTube video?$1.04Jul 23, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 24?$1.04Jul 23, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Demand" 10+ times during earnings call?$1.04Jul 23, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Quarter" 10+ times during earnings call?$1.04Jul 23, 09:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 08:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
52 closed markets, 6% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 01:43 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 05:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.