Immaterial-Inspection
0xbdfac44a0e2f87a267741b29913a3e55c49adc55
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$139.71
Total PnL
$-29.17
Realised
$-5.07
Win rate
0%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on August 12?
22 shares @ 35.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$16.41
$8.75
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 12?
11 shares @ 48.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$10.62
$5.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 12?
11 shares @ 43.2¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$10.50
$5.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 12?
11 shares @ 16.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$10.37
$8.69
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 12?
11 shares @ 38.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$8.56
$4.47
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 12?
11 shares @ 48.5¢·now 59.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$6.42
$1.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on August 12?
22 shares @ 44.3¢·now 25.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$5.51
$-4.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 12?
11 shares @ 27.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$5.26
$2.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 12?
11 shares @ 43.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$4.99
$0.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 12?
11 shares @ 43.8¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$4.60
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 12?$0.74Aug 12, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on August 12?$2.62Aug 12, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on August 12?$3.14Aug 12, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on August 12?$4.53Aug 12, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 11?$10.51Aug 12, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 12?$2.58Aug 12, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 12?$2.97Aug 12, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 12?$4.76Aug 12, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 11?$10.54Aug 12, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 12?$4.76Aug 12, 04:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 12?$6.21Aug 12, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 12?$2.45Aug 12, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on August 12?$3.53Aug 12, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 12?$4.35Aug 12, 03:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on August 11?$10.47Aug 12, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 12?$3.87Aug 12, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 12?$4.70Aug 12, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 12?$1.09Aug 12, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 12?$4.45Aug 12, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 12?$4.76Aug 12, 02:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $3.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 21:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 08:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.