Moral-Psychoanalyst
0xbe44d545b93a9e5e163f52192c4a705eeaf1d6e5
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$1.77
Total PnL
$-795.55
Realised
$-116.51
Win rate
28%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- UP
Solana Up or Down on April 21?
2 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$1.77
$0.87
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 9?
36814 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-36.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9?
33324 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-33.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 9?
30105 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-30.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 9?
23274 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-23.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 9?
19001 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-19.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 9?
9501 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-9.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 9?
222 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.22
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
183 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-20.31
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
147 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-10.50
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$4.33Apr 22, 01:00 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down on April 22?$3.89Apr 21, 23:52 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down on April 22?$2.65Apr 21, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down on April 22?$4.05Apr 21, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down on April 22?$4.96Apr 21, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on April 22?$3.47Apr 21, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on April 22?$4.94Apr 21, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3PM ET$4.96Apr 21, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - April 21, 3PM ET$5.12Apr 21, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on April 22?$0.26Apr 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on April 22?$5.18Apr 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on April 22?$1.60Apr 21, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on April 22?$3.40Apr 21, 18:53 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - April 21, 2PM ET$4.81Apr 21, 18:47 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - April 21, 2PM ET$0.35Apr 21, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - April 21, 2PM ET$4.92Apr 21, 18:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2PM ET$5.78Apr 21, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2PM ET$1.25Apr 21, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2PM ET$3.69Apr 21, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 21, 1PM ET$0.15Apr 21, 17:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $4.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 15:55 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 22, 01:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.