Wretched-Folk
0xbe530a342f724a8db395ad8514b066a0091ab007
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$27.38
Realised
$115.70
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
1248 shares @ 43.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.2K
$700.14
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
390 shares @ 25.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$390.48
$290.48
- YES
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
39 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$39.10
$18.78
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
35 shares @ 60.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$34.87
$13.87
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$4.76
$3.76
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
50 shares @ 40.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.75
$-15.25
- YES
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.72
$0.72
- YES
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?
9827 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-249.20
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
2920 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-309.66
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
2402 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-267.16
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$11.87Jan 15, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$11.00Jan 15, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?$1.00Jan 15, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$1.00Jan 15, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?$1.00Jan 15, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jan 15, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$1.00Jan 15, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?$1.00Jan 15, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?$1.00Jan 15, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?$1.00Jan 15, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$80.00Jan 15, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$20.00Jan 15, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$80.00Jan 15, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$178.93Jan 9, 23:57 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$178.93Jan 9, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$37.23Jan 9, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$37.23Jan 9, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$630.93Jan 9, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$20.00Jan 9, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$20.00Jan 9, 16:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $98.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 6, 03:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 15, 20:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.