Vibrant-Paperback
0xbeaa8b0144cb915b617bdaacfcf78795f481efeb
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-9.0K
Realised
$1.0K
Win rate
73%
56 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?
9167 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-19.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5?
5187 shares @ 13.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-697.69
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 24?
4034 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-120.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 27?
3152 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-129.71
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on February 3?
2991 shares @ 24.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-730.70
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 22?
2874 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-120.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 8?
2142 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?
1835 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-7.34
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 22?
1606 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 9?
1571 shares @ 19.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11AM ET$1.07Jul 21, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3AM ET$3.13Jul 18, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 2AM ET$2.07Jul 18, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 2AM ET$6.21Jul 18, 06:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 11PM ET$13.07Jul 18, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 18?$2.92Jul 18, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 18?$6.38Jul 18, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 11PM ET$10.33Jul 18, 03:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10PM ET$4.48Jul 18, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10PM ET$8.30Jul 18, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 9PM ET$5.19Jul 18, 01:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8PM ET$6.45Jul 18, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8PM ET$3.12Jul 18, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 11AM ET$2.09Jul 17, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10AM ET$3.99Jul 17, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10AM ET$4.98Jul 17, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10AM ET$2.11Jul 17, 14:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10AM ET$5.56Jul 17, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10AM ET$1.80Jul 17, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10AM ET$8.30Jul 17, 14:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
76/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 56 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
56 closed markets, 73% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 15:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 56 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.