Serious-Fundraising
0xbec33abbc62c683e0acbb062f18d459335719c2c
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-258.91
Realised
$-21.58
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Netanyahu out by March 31?
3300 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-85.80
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?
1025 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 20?
414 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-69.65
- NO
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23?
154 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
127 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 21?
83 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.78
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
67 shares @ 29.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-19.82
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
56 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Girona FC win on 2026-03-21?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
44 shares @ 33.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-14.89
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 22?$5.00Mar 22, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23?$1.00Mar 22, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23?$1.00Mar 22, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 22, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$1.00Mar 22, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?$1.00Mar 22, 19:58 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by March 31?$10.24Mar 22, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$4.42Mar 21, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$5.00Mar 21, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$10.00Mar 21, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYLouisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans$1.00Mar 21, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Girona FC win on 2026-03-21?$1.00Mar 21, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?$1.00Mar 21, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?$1.00Mar 21, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?$1.00Mar 21, 19:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$0.01Mar 21, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$10.00Mar 21, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$10.00Mar 21, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$5.00Mar 21, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$6.39Mar 21, 18:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $5.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 10:35 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 22, 20:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.