Probable-Vestment
0xbee4a09d3c829d67044aecac01e90c7ce3658bd2
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-78.11
Realised
$-19.92
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
4500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-13.50
- YES
Over $22M committed to the Space public sale?
90 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will Zelensky say "money" 5 or more times during his UN address?
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 27, 2024$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Zelensky say "HIMARS" during his UN address?
80 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 27, 2024$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
44 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
35 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- NO
Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch?
23 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-2.08
- NO
Over $20M committed to the Space public sale?
4 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-0.77
- YES
Bitcoin above $65,000 on October 4?
2 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2024$0.00
$-0.84
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSentient FDV above $400M one day after launch?$2.08Jan 18, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $22M committed to the Space public sale?$9.00Jan 16, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $22M committed to the Space public sale?$6.41Jan 16, 23:52 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $26M committed to the Space public sale?$2.80Jan 16, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $22M committed to the Space public sale?$6.80Jan 16, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $20M committed to the Space public sale?$5.00Jan 16, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $20M committed to the Space public sale?$6.30Jan 16, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $26M committed to the Space public sale?$10.00Jan 16, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $22M committed to the Space public sale?$19.00Jan 16, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYSentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?$1.00Jan 15, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?$15.00Jan 14, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?$7.00Jan 14, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?$13.50Jan 2, 14:05 UTC
- TRADESELLLighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?$36.00Dec 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYLighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?$32.00Dec 25, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$31.71Nov 25, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$49.00Nov 21, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above $65,000 on October 4?$0.84Sep 30, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLEigenlayer airdrop by September 30?$0.84Sep 30, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYEigenlayer airdrop by September 30?$0.84Sep 29, 19:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $11.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 25, 09:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 18, 16:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".