Wallet digest

active

Activity score

32/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.8K

Realised

$-25.22

Win rate

18 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 18

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
741 shares @ 43.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-320.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
559 shares @ 57.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-320.00
PARIS BASKETBALL
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco
426 shares @ 70.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
ATLANTA DREAM
Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics
407 shares @ 73.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
NEW YORK LIBERTY
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm
395 shares @ 76.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
MISA ESPORTS
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A
377 shares @ 79.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
ILIA TOPURIA
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
370 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
344 shares @ 46.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-160.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
333 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
269 shares @ 29.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-80.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYChicago Sky vs. New York Liberty$10.41Jul 20, 07:40 UTC
TRADEBUYWashington Mystics vs. Golden State Valkyries$50.62Jul 20, 07:40 UTC
REDEEMAtlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo$64.10Jul 18, 02:19 UTC
REDEEMSeattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever$62.50Jul 18, 02:09 UTC
TRADEBUYConnecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury$50.92Jul 17, 18:17 UTC
TRADEBUYAtlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo$50.55Jul 17, 18:16 UTC
TRADEBUYSeattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever$50.50Jul 17, 18:15 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$5.51Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$0.00Jul 6, 06:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$10.52Jul 6, 06:35 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$0.00Jul 4, 20:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$10.45Jul 4, 20:14 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$0.00Jul 4, 19:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$10.64Jul 4, 19:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$11.50Jul 4, 19:54 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$0.00Jul 4, 19:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$10.42Jul 4, 18:50 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$18.97Jul 4, 18:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$4.98Jul 4, 18:49 UTC
TRADESELLWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$194.46Jul 4, 18:47 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

42/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

6% win rate over 18 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence60 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry50 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk45 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 31
Avg trade size: $81.80
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 30, 09:50 UTC
Last active: Jul 20, 07:40 UTC
Win rate sample: 18 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 02:11:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data