Novel-Ephemera
0xbf4adb7d0021cd39c6ede484feb311c39b4ef396
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-50.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 20?
30000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $124,000 on October 20?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Takayuki Kobayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMMonad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?$106.78Jan 30, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYMonad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?$101.44Nov 5, 18:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025?$20.00Oct 20, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025?$20.00Oct 20, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Takayuki Kobayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?$4.00Oct 20, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Toshimitsu Motegi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?$6.00Oct 20, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 20?$30.00Oct 20, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be greater than $124,000 on October 20?$10.00Oct 20, 13:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday?$2.04Mar 28, 09:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first?$3.03Mar 28, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday?$1.00Dec 21, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first?$2.00Nov 17, 01:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$7.53Nov 10, 23:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$0.00Nov 7, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$3.60Oct 25, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$7.00Oct 25, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$1.00Oct 3, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$500.95Sep 16, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$501.45Sep 16, 19:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$501.46Sep 16, 19:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $105.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 18:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 30, 11:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".