Required-Spit
0xbf4d202382ba5702721a8c43126f5f08163733ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$26.1K
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-2.0K
Win rate
46%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
7348 shares @ 87.0¢·now 79.9¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$5.9K
$-520.12
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
8823 shares @ 57.2¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.1K
$29.65
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
4158 shares @ 90.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.1K
$391.11
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
14769 shares @ 15.7¢·now 19.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.8K
$491.34
- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
4845 shares @ 27.3¢·now 33.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.6K
$302.45
- NO
Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?
1640 shares @ 88.4¢·now 97.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.6K
$150.29
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
1350 shares @ 96.6¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$1.3K
$2.91
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
4591 shares @ 25.9¢·now 25.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.2K
$-17.70
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
1027 shares @ 76.4¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$1.0K
$231.34
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?
400 shares @ 95.2¢·now 95.7¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$382.60
$1.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$114.00Aug 2, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$1.03Aug 2, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$28.50Aug 2, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$28.50Aug 2, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$7.60Aug 2, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$8.95Aug 2, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$285.00Aug 2, 12:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$190.80Aug 2, 12:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$1.90Aug 2, 12:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$52.83Aug 2, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$982.98Aug 2, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$331.40Aug 2, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$3.99Aug 2, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.00Aug 2, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?$177.63Aug 2, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?$3.03Aug 2, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?$0.40Aug 2, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$1.44Aug 2, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.85Aug 2, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$0.19Aug 2, 09:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $125.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 06:23 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 2, 12:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.