Academic-Topic
0xbf6428ed0a57cd74e6f04bc071aa1b697064e473
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$-5.74
Win rate
27%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
83361 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-83.36
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
1046 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-10.46
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
1018 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-10.18
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 8, 2026?
943 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-12.26
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- KIWOOM DRX
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
424 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.85
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$1.06Jun 3, 14:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?$13.51Jun 1, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?$1.26May 29, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?$3.95May 22, 08:29 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$2.48May 17, 08:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$6.44May 17, 08:00 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$3.00May 17, 07:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$2.24May 17, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$5.16May 17, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$5.19May 17, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$1.28May 17, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$2.48May 17, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$1.49May 17, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$3.33May 17, 07:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$7.28May 17, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$2.42May 17, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$1.16May 17, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$3.46May 17, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$1.38May 17, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$4.07May 17, 07:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $2.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 07:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 3, 14:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.