Infamous-Grandson
0xbf736bb7a16257394cac27f01298b3996c8e0436
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
135
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-6.3K
Realised
$-1.5K
Win rate
36%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 135- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
400 shares @ 74.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$369.99
$73.00
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
200 shares @ 95.7¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$191.30
$-0.10
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
200 shares @ 95.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$189.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 85.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$185.10
$15.10
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$183.00
$1.00
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$181.00
$3.00
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 65.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$167.00
$37.00
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
200 shares @ 64.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$159.00
$31.00
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
100 shares @ 49.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$90.50
$41.50
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
500 shares @ 2.3¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$24.25
$12.75
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.05Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 21, 20:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $185.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 00:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.