0xbf7bd84bedad4b604af90e4a2ac1754a8dd158a9
0xbf7bd84bedad4b604af90e4a2ac1754a8dd158a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$32.10
Total PnL
$-11.49
Realised
$-7.67
Win rate
20%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- DEMOCRATIC
Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election?
14 shares @ 40.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 8, 2022$14.08
$8.45
- NO
Will an election for the Israeli Knesset occur before August 1, 2022?
2 shares @ 96.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2022$2.48
$0.10
- YES
Will there be a run-off in the 2022 Georgia Senate election?
2 shares @ 25.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 8, 2022$2.12
$1.58
- YES
[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 46.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 10, 2024$1.76
$0.94
- YES
Republican House and Democratic Senate after U.S. 2022 Midterms?
2 shares @ 38.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 8, 2022$1.55
$0.95
- YES
Will Parag Agrawal remain CEO of Twitter through June 30?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2022$1.53
$0.77
- YES
Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by November 1, 2022?
1 shares @ 90.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2022$1.48
$0.15
- YES
Will $ETH be above $3,000 on April 20, 2022?
1 shares @ 49.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2022$1.26
$0.64
- REPUBLICAN
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
1 shares @ 53.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 8, 2024$1.26
$0.59
- NO
Will Donovan Mitchell get traded to the Knicks?
1 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2022$1.25
$0.88
Recent activity
- REDEEMSenate: Will a Democrat (Warnock) or Republican (Walker) win in Georgia?$0.09Dec 7, 20:07 UTC
- REDEEMSenate: Will a Democrat (Hassan) or Republican (Bolduc) win in New Hampshire?$0.02Nov 16, 12:08 UTC
- REDEEMWho will win Jake Paul vs. Anderson Silva on October 29?$0.01Nov 16, 12:08 UTC
- REDEEMGovernor: Will a Democrat (Evers) or Republican (Michels) win in Wisconsin?$0.03Nov 16, 12:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jair Bolsonaro win 2022 Presidential Elections in Brazil?$0.05Nov 16, 12:08 UTC
- MERGEWill Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 6, 2023?$1.00Oct 28, 02:29 UTC
- SPLITWill Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 6, 2023?$1.00Oct 28, 02:17 UTC
- MERGEWill $ETH dip below $1000 by Nov 1?$1.00Oct 22, 15:23 UTC
- SPLITWill $ETH dip below $1000 by Nov 1?$1.00Oct 22, 15:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill UK inflation be 8.9% or more in September 2022?$0.03Oct 22, 15:15 UTC
- SPLITWill $ETH dip below $1000 by Nov 1?$1.00Oct 22, 15:15 UTC
- SPLITWill TWTR be delisted from the NYSE by December 30?$1.00Oct 12, 09:27 UTC
- SPLITWill Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 6, 2023?$2.00Oct 12, 09:26 UTC
- SPLITWhich party will win the U.S. House in the 2022 elections?$0.20Oct 10, 22:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Coinbase’s NFT marketplace be live by May 1st, 2022?$0.00Oct 8, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill an earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or above occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022?$0.01Oct 8, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill President Biden visit Ukraine by June 1, 2022?$0.00Oct 8, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill @elonmusk's tweet count be over 17,600 on May 5 (12 PM ET)?$0.00Oct 8, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill @elonmusk's tweet count be over 17,600 on May 5 (12 PM ET)?$0.01Oct 8, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEM(To be Emergency Resolved) Will Amber Heard be found guilty of defaming Johnny Depp?$0.01Oct 8, 19:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 8, 19:01 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 7, 20:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".