0xbf84bd51158665d6bc42244129a862991ce94ab2
0xbf84bd51158665d6bc42244129a862991ce94ab2
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-797.29
Realised
$-39.11
Win rate
14%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- NO
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?
20051 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-72.52
- YES
Over $3M committed to the Makina public sale?
1500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
1000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the fight be won by submission?
515 shares @ 15.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-80.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 28?
396 shares @ 34.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-135.00
- YES
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?
295 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 11?
235 shares @ 15.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-36.00
- YES
Will Almanak FDV above $160M one day after launch?
215 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-36.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8?
200 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Almanak FDV above $50M one day after launch?
198 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands?$1.03Jun 25, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands?$1.03Jun 25, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYTunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5$1.02Jun 25, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYTunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands?$1.00Jun 25, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYTürkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?$0.99Jun 25, 22:24 UTC
- TRADESELLCuraçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5$4.57Jun 25, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYCuraçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5$0.99Jun 25, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYEcuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?$1.00Jun 25, 20:11 UTC
- TRADESELLSouth Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score$3.15Jun 25, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico?$1.03Jun 25, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYCzechia vs. Mexico: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners$0.61Jun 25, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSouth Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score$1.02Jun 25, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? AND Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic?$1.03Jun 25, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? AND Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil?$0.89Jun 24, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? AND Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil?$1.03Jun 24, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYMorocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5$1.02Jun 24, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada?$2.05Jun 24, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$4.01Mar 29, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$8.41Mar 24, 21:16 UTC
- TRADESELLAztec FDV above $300M one day after launch?$2.22Feb 13, 20:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $15.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 22, 18:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 23:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.