Wallet profile

Authorized-Criterion

0xbf8d620da74f3b0516a0264a9f44c44a677380c8

activity 61/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

61/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

114

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-16.1K

Realised

$3.7K

Win rate

88%

25 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 114

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.8KJul 7, 00:51 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.2KJul 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.5KJul 5, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.1KJul 4, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.8KJul 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.1KJul 2, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.1KJul 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.8KJun 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.5KJun 29, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.7KJun 28, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.0KJun 27, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.9KJun 26, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.3KJun 25, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.6KJun 24, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.4KJun 23, 14:57 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$2.02Jun 23, 00:11 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$7.34Jun 23, 00:11 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$2.50Jun 23, 00:11 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$12.17Jun 23, 00:10 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$1.92Jun 23, 00:10 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

56/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

88% win rate over 25 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity53 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence83 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry59 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk29 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
11
Avg trade size
$13.15
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 8, 14:36 UTC
Last active
Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
Win rate sample
25 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on PolymarketView on Polygonscan
updated 00:48:35 UTC·src:Polymarket Data