Kosher-Letter
0xbfa5aa144937c34942a876db5e2a8cb384078449
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
3
Open notional
$12.54
Total PnL
$-0.91
Realised
$-0.92
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Gold close between $3200 and $3300 at the end of 2025?
7 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$6.61
$0.01
- NO
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$3.31
$0.00
- NO
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.62
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $3200 and $3300 at the end of 2025?$299.40Dec 15, 05:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Aristides Teixeira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$3.00Dec 14, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold close between $3200 and $3300 at the end of 2025?$306.30Dec 12, 13:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$309.38Dec 12, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$313.00Dec 12, 13:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025?$1.09Dec 12, 13:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?$311.38Dec 12, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?$314.31Dec 12, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Aristides Teixeira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$3.00Dec 12, 12:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.00Dec 12, 12:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?$1.01Dec 12, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.00Jun 5, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025?$1.00Jun 5, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?$1.00Jun 5, 04:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pamela Bondi be out as Attorney General in Trump's first 100 days?$1.00Jun 5, 04:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?$1.00Jun 5, 04:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by more than 1.41ºC in March 2025?$1.01Jun 5, 04:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?$1.01Jun 5, 04:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?$1.03Jun 5, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?$1.00Apr 10, 06:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
12/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $63.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 24, 06:43 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 15, 05:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.