Agile-Beginning
0xbfa64469155a6e6388f32cf70bdf3640045a4eb6
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
193
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-14.6K
Realised
$-807.28
Win rate
38%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 193- NO
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?
85018 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-410.81
- NO
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?
20184 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-29.97
- YES
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?
11541 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-101.68
- YES
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18.5m?
10297 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-128.98
- YES
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 21m?
10290 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-40.98
- NO
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 16m?
9367 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-53.32
- YES
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?
8474 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-93.98
- NO
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?
5602 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-451.90
- NO
Will the US strike Somalia next?
5417 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-94.63
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump talk to Kevin Hassett in February?$156.23Mar 1, 12:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Kevin Hassett in February 2026?$500.72Mar 1, 12:39 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$236.82Feb 28, 12:11 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. strike on Somalia by February 21?$0.00Feb 19, 01:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?$0.01Feb 19, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$89.99Feb 18, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?$8.01Feb 18, 12:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?$98.01Feb 17, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Kevin Hassett in February?$90.00Feb 17, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?$10.00Feb 17, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. strike on Somalia by February 21?$98.50Feb 17, 15:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?$8.50Feb 17, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?$10.00Feb 17, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?$89.06Feb 17, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 39m?$5.00Feb 17, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total number of TSA passengers for February 17 be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000?$17.31Feb 17, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total number of TSA passengers for February 17 be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000?$11.84Feb 17, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total number of TSA passengers for February 17 be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000?$20.82Feb 17, 13:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?$221.74Feb 17, 13:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?$78.31Feb 16, 22:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $102.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 15, 00:36 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 1, 12:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.