Troubled-Liquid
0xbfb44619edf36636bcb21d8f14b7363760a53d41
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-684.31
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Myles Garrett win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?
2242 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2025$0.00
$-108.35
- NO
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
762 shares @ 45.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-343.68
- YES
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship?
704 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2024$0.00
$-232.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?$343.68Jan 21, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship?$232.28Nov 24, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Myles Garrett win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?$108.35Nov 22, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?$1.6KNov 16, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?$722.97Nov 16, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?$251.56Nov 16, 00:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill threadguy interview Trump before October?$251.56Sep 23, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill threadguy interview Trump before October?$120.30Sep 20, 22:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $484.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 20, 22:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 21, 17:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.