Constant-Leprosy
0xbfbad64a7634dd5d6446aa72e9d114181aef033d
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$22.85
Total PnL
$-365.54
Realised
$-12.54
Win rate
0%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 16?
10 shares @ 44.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$7.70
$3.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 17?
10 shares @ 46.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$5.05
$0.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 18?
10 shares @ 37.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.95
$0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 18?
10 shares @ 36.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.35
$-0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 17?
10 shares @ 28.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$2.75
$-0.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 16?
10 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.05
$-3.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 31?
60 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 22?
55 shares @ 56.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-31.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 7?
52 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-7.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 7?
51 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-29.22
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 17?$2.91Aug 16, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 18?$3.73Aug 16, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 18?$0.51Aug 16, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 18?$1.85Aug 16, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 18?$0.50Aug 16, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 18?$0.88Aug 16, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 16?$3.22Aug 16, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 17?$4.75Aug 16, 04:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 15?$10.00Aug 15, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 16?$4.55Aug 15, 11:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 14?$8.33Aug 14, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 15?$3.53Aug 14, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 15?$4.95Aug 14, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 14?$6.44Aug 14, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 16?$3.14Aug 14, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 15?$7.80Aug 14, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 15?$2.09Aug 14, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 15?$1.36Aug 14, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 16?$2.83Aug 14, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 14?$8.44Aug 13, 15:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
31 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $6.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 10:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 08:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.