Gaseous-Deathwatch
0xbfbe5617b64bcf58638580621df24cdc17a1e790
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
7
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.1K
Realised
$-304.01
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 7?
5562 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-425.05
- YES
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 8?
4649 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-263.20
- YES
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 6?
3552 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-268.12
- YES
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 9?
2624 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-21.45
- YES
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
1856 shares @ 83.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.5K
- YES
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5?
1768 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-190.00
- YES
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4?
1330 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-62.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?$1.5KOct 3, 07:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?$1.5KSep 8, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?$1.4KSep 8, 04:20 UTC
- REDEEMJapan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?$1.4KSep 7, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYJapan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?$1.3KJul 23, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?$1.3KJul 23, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?$1.3KJul 20, 22:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?$1.3KJul 20, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?$388.62Jul 17, 02:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?$351.37Jul 17, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?$50.00Jul 16, 22:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk announce Presidential run in 2025?$15.00Jul 16, 00:33 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?$2.50Jul 15, 12:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 9PM ET$69.75Jul 15, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 9PM ET$62.84Jul 15, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?$25.20Jul 14, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?$100.00Jul 14, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?$200.00Jul 13, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?$500.00Jul 12, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMYoon arrested by July 15?$0.01Jul 10, 00:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $297.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 00:18 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 3, 07:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.