0xbfcf746b3726f908373b8cb932d0731fdcea6c9b
0xbfcf746b3726f908373b8cb932d0731fdcea6c9b
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$31.25
Total PnL
$-8.4K
Realised
$11.06
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
89 shares @ 18.5¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$17.66
$1.32
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
97 shares @ 10.3¢·now 14.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$13.59
$3.59
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 7?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?
1526 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-19.00
- YES
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 37m?
1012 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 7?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 6?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 6?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?
707 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-66.74
- YES
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?
556 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $12.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.