Perky-Puppy
0xbfd2df3821067537bc45d1134ce536e2ad832925
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-605.37
Win rate
50%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- YES
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?
22320 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-58.14
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?
3934 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-119.32
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 18?
3782 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-3.78
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?
3228 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-317.54
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 19?
2800 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-3.72
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
2380 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-2.38
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 20?
2300 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-2.60
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
2000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-6.50
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
1571 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?
1500 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-85.27
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Powell say "Assumption" during January press conference?$1.00Jan 28, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during January press conference?$0.27Jan 28, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Assumption" during January press conference?$1.00Jan 28, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during January press conference?$1.00Jan 28, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Job" 15+ times during January press conference?$1.00Jan 28, 20:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$0.10Jan 28, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$14.40Jan 28, 19:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.77Jan 28, 19:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$1.55Jan 28, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$17.62Jan 28, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$4.50Jan 28, 16:08 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$1.00Jan 28, 15:39 UTC
- TRADESELLFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$5.00Jan 28, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$1.00Jan 28, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$1.00Jan 28, 12:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$1.66Jan 28, 12:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$1.46Jan 28, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$0.87Jan 28, 12:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$0.24Jan 28, 12:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$1.68Jan 28, 12:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 21, 19:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 28, 21:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.