Unfortunate-Newsletter
0xbfedee642df97c04fa7d832e9e262be8ad53e080
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
74
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$35.70
Win rate
100%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 74- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 29?
189 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$187.87
$0.97
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 29?
145 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$144.49
$1.09
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 29?
107 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$106.22
$1.46
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on July 29?
79 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$78.55
$0.62
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on July 30?
72 shares @ 94.1¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$68.76
$1.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 29?
67 shares @ 96.3¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$64.55
$0.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 30?
65 shares @ 97.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$64.03
$0.98
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on July 29?
55 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$54.87
$0.45
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on July 29?
59 shares @ 96.3¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$53.66
$-3.17
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 30?
46 shares @ 97.3¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$45.54
$0.78
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on July 29?$16.52Jul 29, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on July 29?$18.82Jul 29, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 29?$1.96Jul 29, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 31?$6.79Jul 29, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 29?$15.52Jul 29, 05:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 29?$23.28Jul 29, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 97°F or below on July 30?$14.55Jul 29, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on July 29?$9.99Jul 29, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on July 29?$9.61Jul 29, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on July 29?$0.38Jul 29, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?$6.86Jul 29, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?$6.72Jul 29, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?$6.24Jul 29, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?$7.60Jul 29, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?$10.98Jul 29, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?$23.75Jul 29, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?$12.04Jul 29, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on July 29?$4.95Jul 29, 04:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on July 29?$10.00Jul 29, 04:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 29?$8.00Jul 29, 04:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
40 closed markets, 100% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $13.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 04:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 05:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.