Live-Infarction
0xbff80fce0ed21a834980e139e333be55bb282179
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$5.00
Total PnL
$-422.34
Realised
$7.80
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 5?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$5.00
$2.50
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27?
1125 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-19.15
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 30?
1051 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.51
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 2?
850 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-3.80
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30?
500 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.50
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
265 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-29.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?
230 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-9.40
- YES
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be less than $2B at market close on IPO day?
220 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-24.82
- YES
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be at least $3B at market close on IPO day?
220 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-11.58
- YES
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.5B and $2.75B at market close on IPO day?
220 shares @ 13.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-29.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 10?$1.20Jul 8, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 10?$3.60Jul 8, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 5?$2.50Jul 4, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 4?$0.55Jul 4, 05:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?$50.76Jun 24, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?$5.94Jun 24, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?$0.66Jun 24, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?$18.00Jun 23, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on June 22?$10.00Jun 21, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on June 21?$0.09Jun 21, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on June 21?$1.61Jun 21, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on June 21?$2.45Jun 20, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on June 20?$1.85Jun 20, 03:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1.5%?$42.10Jun 19, 06:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on June 9?$11.00Jun 15, 04:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on June 14?$30.00Jun 15, 04:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?$1.04Jun 14, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?$0.16Jun 14, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?$6.43Jun 14, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?$31.95Jun 14, 19:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $10.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 11:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 14:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.