Dead-Jump
0xc00ac9e433c06c58efd6790cc80599a8e5b62424
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$-5.72
Win rate
52%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?
1292 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-51.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 2?
736 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
366 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-55.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
222 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 8?
197 shares @ 25.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-50.50
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 27?
184 shares @ 48.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 2?
172 shares @ 58.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-101.00
- YES
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
164 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01?
149 shares @ 46.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-70.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 3AM ET
143 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill England win on 2026-06-17?$51.01Jun 17, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-06-17?$40.05Jun 17, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-06-17?$19.13Jun 17, 13:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill France win on 2026-06-16?$44.12Jun 16, 21:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$0.32Jun 16, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$0.43Jun 16, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$0.48Jun 16, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$0.54Jun 16, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$0.74Jun 16, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$5.62Jun 16, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-06-16?$30.29Jun 16, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$1.77May 18, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$5.05May 18, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$5.38May 18, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$5.38May 18, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$5.02May 18, 18:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$5.43May 18, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$5.02May 18, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$5.03May 18, 18:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$5.38May 18, 18:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $7.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 14:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 22:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.