Bitter-Forehead
0xc017d0681541cc174ba4fe0980cd2fda27baa219
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-95.82
Win rate
6%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 8?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 8?
495 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
300 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.57
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
187 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-14.98
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
159 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-7.56
- GRIND BACK
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner
158 shares @ 65.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-103.80
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 8?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 8?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
121 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-5.94
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$4.57Jul 22, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$4.58Jul 22, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$4.57Jul 22, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$2.70Jul 22, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$1.80Jul 22, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$4.57Jul 22, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$4.34Jul 22, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$9.18Jul 22, 05:54 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$10.03Jul 22, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$4.57Jul 22, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$4.48Jul 22, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$4.46Jul 22, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$4.45Jul 22, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$4.47Jul 22, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$12.86Jul 22, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$4.57Jul 22, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$4.57Jul 22, 05:30 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$11.64Jul 22, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$4.18Jul 22, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$4.45Jul 22, 05:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $5.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 03:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 06:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.