Harmonious-Teen-Currency
0xc020ad8e6c50a4a742e6bfbd5e8aad87317ba53b
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$64.39
Total PnL
$-31.66
Realised
$-3.99
Win rate
0%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?
20 shares @ 81.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$15.40
$-0.80
- YES
Will Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera win the 2027 Querétaro Governor Election?
40 shares @ 53.5¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jun 6, 2027$14.20
$-7.20
- NO
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
20 shares @ 58.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$11.00
$-0.60
- NO
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?
25 shares @ 44.8¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$10.88
$-0.33
- YES
Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
40 shares @ 13.5¢·now 17.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.80
$1.40
- YES
Will Đuro Macut win the next Serbia presidential election?
20 shares @ 17.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp May 1, 2027$2.50
$-0.90
- NO
Will United Russia win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections?
20 shares @ 5.7¢·now 6.8¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$1.35
$0.21
- NO
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 44.6¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$1.16
$0.28
- YES
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
2 shares @ 62.7¢·now 55.4¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$1.11
$-0.15
- NO
Grok 4.6 released by August 12, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Đuro Macut win the next Serbia presidential election?$3.40Aug 14, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera win the 2027 Querétaro Governor Election?$0.52Aug 14, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera win the 2027 Querétaro Governor Election?$9.88Aug 14, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera win the 2027 Querétaro Governor Election?$11.00Aug 14, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?$16.20Aug 14, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?$2.60Aug 13, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?$2.80Aug 13, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$9.00Aug 13, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.20Aug 13, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?$9.77Aug 13, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?$11.60Aug 13, 10:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?$16.00Aug 13, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?$8.20Aug 13, 09:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?$11.00Aug 13, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?$9.00Aug 13, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?$6.20Aug 13, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?$10.40Aug 13, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?$12.40Aug 13, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?$12.70Aug 13, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?$0.88Aug 13, 06:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $8.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 10:43 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 02:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.